XRP Faces Critical Price Challenges Amid Accumulation Signs

XRP is navigating a pivotal moment in its price trajectory, currently trading just below the critical threshold of $2.20. After a brief recovery of 12% from its monthly lows, recent market activity has seen the token fall back below this key level. This price action, combined with exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows and on-chain data, suggests a potential rebound, but the overall momentum remains uncertain.

The daily trading pattern indicates increasing selling pressure, especially after a daily death cross, which pushed XRP towards a crucial support band between $2.17 and $2.18. Analysts are closely monitoring this area, as it could signal either a correction or a deeper retracement toward $2.08 and possibly the $1.90 region.

Technical Analysis of XRP’s Price Structure

XRP’s weekly chart reveals a symmetrical triangle pattern, highlighting a balance between buyers and sellers. While the recent rebound has pushed the price back above a short-term support area, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a bearish crossover, suggesting that risk remains elevated. Repeated tests of the $1.93 support region indicate that buyers have yet to establish strong control over the market.

Resistance levels present a challenge for XRP: the price must overcome the significant barrier near $2.95 before it can approach previous highs. Daily indicators provide mixed signals; while XRP recently broke out of a falling channel and the Chaikin Money Flow moved above the zero line, indicating improving inflows, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains weak and the MACD continues to drift into negative territory. Short-term moving averages are also declining, with the 50-day average now positioned above the current spot price after forming the death cross. Analysts are looking for confirmation of an upward movement back above $2.20, followed by a break of the $2.25 to $2.30 resistance band, and eventually the $2.32 Fibonacci level.

Market Dynamics: ETF Flows and On-Chain Sentiment

The market for XRP ETFs continues to attract new capital, with community commentators noting that authorized participants are likely sourcing much of this XRP from the open market. This could lead to a tighter supply, although the immediate price reaction remains subdued. Despite XRP trading below recent highs, the asset has struggled to maintain rallies above the $2.20 threshold.

Notably, the reserves on the Binance exchange have fallen to a yearly low of approximately 2.7 billion XRP, with around 300 million XRP exiting the platform since October. This trend indicates ongoing accumulation by long-term holders, even as derivative selling contributes to cautious near-term sentiment. Additionally, on-chain dormancy has reached its highest level since late October, suggesting that long-standing wallets are beginning to move coins during periods of price strength.

The combination of ETF inflows and decreasing exchange balances may provide medium-term support for XRP. However, the overall market sentiment remains weak, leaving XRP in a precarious phase until a significant price movement reclaims key resistance levels with stronger trading volume. As analysts continue to monitor these developments, the outlook for XRP remains complex, with potential for both recovery and further decline.