Democrats Aim for 2026 Midterm Gains After Narrow Election Loss

A recent special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District has sparked renewed enthusiasm among Democrats, despite their candidate, Aftyn Behn, losing by 9 points. This loss, while significant, is an improvement from the 22-point margin that Republican Mark Green secured in the previous election. The results have ignited discussions among local Democrats, who are now optimistic about the potential for a more competitive landscape in the 2026 midterm elections.

Megan Schwalm, who leads the Liberal Ladies Social Group in Mount Juliet, expressed a mix of hope and apprehension. “It’s a numbers game, right?” she remarked, acknowledging both the excitement and the challenges facing her party. Despite the undercurrent of optimism, she noted the difficulties posed by gerrymandering, which complicates the path to victory for Democrats in the state.

The political landscape in Tennessee has shifted dramatically over the past few years. Republicans, who have dominated state politics, redrew congressional district lines prior to the 2022 midterms, resulting in Nashville being split into three districts that extend into rural areas. The newly drawn districts have consistently favored Republican candidates, with President Donald Trump winning by margins of 18 points in the 5th District, 35 points in the 6th District, and 22 points in the 7th District during the 2024 elections.

Despite these challenges, local Democrats are rallying their resources to make Nashville and its suburbs a battleground for the upcoming elections. “There’s something happening,” Lisa Quigley, former chief of staff to the last Democrat to represent Nashville, stated. She believes that if they strategically position their best candidates, they could capitalize on the current political momentum.

The enthusiasm among Democrats is palpable, particularly within Schwalm’s group, which has grown significantly since its inception three years ago. Initially focused on local issues such as school board decisions regarding diversity and book policies, the group has evolved to engage more broadly with national politics. With nearly 700 members, the group actively participated in the recent special election, demonstrating a coordinated effort to mobilize voters.

While the special election results were disappointing, some Democrats are considering the potential for a stronger candidate in future races. Conversations have emerged about the possibility of fielding a more moderate candidate, but many within the coffee group, including Schwalm, argue for a more progressive approach. “We’ve been running moderates. It doesn’t work and hasn’t gotten us anywhere,” she asserted.

The upcoming elections will likely see a crowded primary field, particularly in the 5th District, which encompasses a significant portion of Nashville. Local leaders are eyeing Chaz Molder, the mayor of Columbia, as a potential strong candidate due to his experience in winning votes in traditionally Republican areas.

As Democrats strategize for the upcoming elections, they must also navigate the sentiments of local Republican voters. Luis and Cyndi Cortes, who own a coffee shop in Mount Juliet, represent a segment of the conservative base. Despite their support for Trump, Cyndi has expressed frustration with current Republican leadership and is considering options beyond party lines if candidates do not align with her values.

As the political climate evolves, the energy among local Democrats remains high. Quigley predicts that the excitement generated by recent events could translate into a competitive primary season in the Nashville area. “Primary voters are going to figure out who they want to be their standard-bearer,” she noted, highlighting the importance of aligning candidates with the values of their constituents.

Looking ahead to November 2026, the Democratic Party in Tennessee is poised to make a concerted effort to challenge Republican dominance, with hopes of turning the tide in the upcoming elections. While the odds remain daunting, the palpable sense of determination among local Democrats suggests that they are ready to fight for their vision and values in a state that has long leaned Republican.