Turkey Prices Surge 44%: Thanksgiving Costs Impacted Nationwide

UPDATE: Thanksgiving is facing a pricing crisis as wholesale turkey prices are set to surge by 44% this year, driven by a devastating outbreak of avian flu that has wiped out over 2 million U.S. turkeys in just three months. Consumers are scrambling as the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving feast rises, with many staples seeing significant price increases.

In Chelsea, Michigan, Larry Doll, owner of Old Brick Farm, has been fortunate. His farm, operating for five generations, has escaped bird flu and avian metapneumovirus, diseases that have decimated the turkey population nationwide. Despite this, Doll faces challenges as the U.S. turkey flock dwindles to a 40-year low. “If you don’t get your order in early, you’re not going to get it,” he warns, highlighting the urgency for consumers to secure their holiday turkeys.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that despite some stores offering discounts on turkeys, the rising wholesale prices are hard to ignore. As of November 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving essentials, including a 10-pound frozen turkey and canned goods, cost $58.81—a 4.1% increase from last year, according to Datasembly. This increase is sharper than the overall food inflation rate, which rose by 2.7% in September.

In response to these challenges, grocery chains are implementing aggressive promotions. Discount retailer Aldi is offering a complete Thanksgiving meal for $40, while Kroger claims shoppers can feed a family of ten for under $50. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump praised Walmart’s Thanksgiving meal basket as being 25% cheaper than last year, although the selection differs significantly from previous years.

Despite promotional efforts, the average price for frozen turkeys remains alarming. In the second week of November, the cost for frozen turkeys weighing between 8-16 pounds averaged $1.77 per pound, marking an 81% increase from last year, according to Mark Jordan of Leap Market Analytics. The surge mirrors a broader trend; beef prices are up 14% compared to last year, pushing consumers towards turkey as a more economical choice.

Farok Contractor, a professor at Rutgers Business School, explains that tariffs on steel and aluminum are exacerbating food prices, increasing costs by 10 cents to 40 cents per can for consumers. This has notably impacted popular items like jellied cranberry sauce, which is up 38% from last year. Additionally, a drought in Massachusetts has led to a 9% drop in cranberry production, further straining supplies.

At Old Brick Farm, Doll expresses pride in providing holiday meals, reflecting on the emotional significance of his work. “I just love it, to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,” he said as he prepared to deliver his turkeys to an Amish butcher.

As Thanksgiving approaches, consumers are urged to act quickly to secure their holiday meals. With prices on essential items rising steadily, the urgency to plan ahead has never been more critical. The situation is developing, and shoppers are encouraged to look for deals while they can—especially as the potential for further price increases looms.

Stay tuned for updates as we continue to monitor the impact of these pricing shifts on Thanksgiving celebrations nationwide.