Simulation Suggests Civil War Could Erupt Over ICE Actions

A recent simulation conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL) at the University of Pennsylvania suggests that current actions by federal law enforcement in Minneapolis could potentially lead to a civil conflict in the United States. The experiment, which took place in October 2024, involved a scenario where a president ordered a controversial federal enforcement operation in the city.

In the simulation, the fictional president attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania National Guard to support the operation, which met resistance from the state’s governor. As the situation escalated, National Guard troops loyal to the state followed suit, prompting the president to deploy acting U.S. military personnel to take control of the city. According to CERL director Claire Finkelstein, the exercise concluded with a violent confrontation between state and federal forces, highlighting the potential for significant unrest in a major urban area.

Finkelstein shared insights from the simulation with the Guardian, noting that participants included actual government officials and former senior military leaders, all of whom did not view the scenario as unrealistic. The findings indicated that during a rapidly evolving civil emergency, courts might be largely ineffective in curbing federal overreach.

While the simulation reflects the tensions currently felt in Minneapolis, where residents have been impacted by actions from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), it diverges from reality in a critical aspect. Local and state officials appear to be refraining from outright confrontation with ICE agents. For instance, a 2025 municipal ordinance in Minneapolis explicitly prohibits police cooperation with ICE, yet does not allow interference in federal enforcement actions.

Furthermore, Minnesota’s governor, Tim Walz, has urged protesters to avoid acts of civil disobedience as he mobilizes the Minnesota National Guard. Although some interpreted this action as preparation to remove ICE agents from Minneapolis, state officials clarified that if the National Guard is deployed, their role will focus on maintaining public order, directing traffic, and safeguarding property during protests.

The current environment suggests that while tensions are high, the prospect of organized official resistance remains largely theoretical at this time. State power continues to be directed toward managing protests rather than confronting federal agents.

This simulation serves as a stark reminder of the potential consequences of escalating civil unrest and the importance of fostering dialogue between federal and state authorities to avoid a situation that could spiral into conflict. As the situation evolves, the focus remains on finding peaceful resolutions rather than allowing tensions to escalate further.